This data is only available for the 27 states that have a formal party registration system, and signifies only the party with which a voter is registered, not the candidates selected on their ballot.
Experts caution that Democrats’ higher turnout in the early vote does not guarantee they’ll maintain that edge, with tens of millions more Americans still expected to show up at the polls.
Republicans are anticipated to make up ground on Election Day, as they have in recent years. A Pew Research survey conducted following the 2024 midterm elections showed that nearly 40% of registered Republican voters cast their ballot in person on Election Day, compared to 28% of registered Democratic voters.
“We expect the Democrats to build up a lead in the early vote, and Election Day tends to be a Republican day, so you can’t just look at the early vote as it is now,” McDonald tells TIME.
Polling has shown, however, that Democratic engagement and enthusiasm is higher than it is for Republicans in the lead-up to the elections. According to a PBS News/NPR/Marist poll released on Tuesday, 52% of likely voters said they would back the Democratic candidate in their House district, while 44% would back the Republican candidate. Independent likely voters favored Democratic candidates by 13 points.