A majority of Ontarians appear to be unfamiliar with the current crop of candidates looking to lead the provincial Liberal Party into the next election, according to a new poll which paints a picture of tepid support among the general electorate.
Five leadership contenders – Navdeep Bains, Lee Fairclough, Stephanie Bowman, Eric Lombardi and Dylan Marando – have eight weeks to convince Ontario Liberal delegates to support their leadership bid.
While the candidates have worked to raise their profiles by introducing policy ideas and travelling to 124 provincial ridings to meet with Liberal supporters, a new poll of 1,600 Ontarians found all five are relative unknowns.
The Liaison Strategies poll found 52 per cent said they were “not familiar” with former federal cabinet minister Navdeep Bains despite being widely viewed as the frontrunner in the race.
The poll also found roughly 75 per cent were unfamiliar with MPPs Stephanie Bowman and Lee Fairclough, while 82 to 85 per cent didn’t recognize Eric Lombardi or Dylan Marando.
“With such low name recognition, these candidates face a serious challenge getting their own message across before the PCs define them, ” said David Valentin, with Liaison Strategies.
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The same poll found Premier Doug Ford has bounced back in public opinion polls, with the Ontario Progressive Conservatives pulling in 40 per cent support while the Liberals are back in second place at 34 per cent and the NDP has inched up to 21 per cent.
Liberal Party insiders, speaking on a not-for-attribution basis, acknowledged the uphill battle candidates might be facing, but expressed confidence that the next leader will have time to gain support.
“We don’t have big titans with massive name recognition,” the insider said but added that the candidates have “substance, potential, ideas, skill and sensibility.”
While name recognition played a big role during Steven Del Duca’s time as Liberal leader, insiders note that Bonnie Crombie faced a similar electoral fate despite being a known commodity in Mississauga.
Still, Liberals point to past leaders who followed the same trajectory.
“Dalton McGuinty was one of the most successful premiers in Ontario history and he was a little-known, dark horse during most of the leadership race,” a Liberal source stressed.
“Name recognition is not a prediction of future success.”
Valentin, however, said the party runs the risk of being dominated by the PC party war chest to run negative ads on the leader almost immediately after the race is called.
“They have room to build support, but they do not have unlimited time,” Valentin said.
“The risk of being defined by their opponents outweighs any benefit of starting with a relatively blank slate.”
Once the respondents to the poll were given a short biography of each of the candidates, the numbers began to shift.
Among a general pool of voters, 23 per cent said they would like to see Fairclough selected as Liberal leader, 20 per cent picked Bains, 13 per cent chose Bowman, Lombardi garnered 10 per cent while Marando received six per cent.
Among Liberal supporters, however, Bains was the clear frontrunner with 32 per cent support, followed by Fairclough with 26 per cent, and Bowman with 15 per cent.
Party members can vote online between Nov. 9 and 20, and the winner will be announced Nov. 21.