Over the past few years, the United States has imposed tariffs and export controls. Multinational companies have adopted “China plus one” strategies. Supply chain resilience has become a boardroom obsession. Yet China’s exports have continued to grow, helping to cushion its weakening domestic economy. Its goods trade surplus reached a record $1.2 trillion in 2025. But it would be a mistake to assume that this can carry on indefinitely. Increasingly, what is economically efficient is no longer politically tenable.
China’s manufacturing dominance is generating resistance. And not only in America. Europe worries about the erosion of its industrial base. Developing countries welcome Chinese investment and admire aspects of China’s development experience, but still ask a reasonable question: where, in this model, is our development?
Most countries do not simply want to buy Chinese electric vehicles, batteries, solar panels, machinery and robots. They want factories of their own. They want their workers to acquire new skills and their suppliers to move up the value chain. They want technology and know-how. For years, Western companies complained that access to China’s enormous market came with demands for technology transfers. Now, China finds itself on the other side of the table, being asked to share its own expertise.