New Delhi:
The second phase of assembly election in Bengal, due on April 29, is across south Bengal — the stronghold of the Trinamool Congress. For the BJP, cracking this zone could be tricky, indicate numbers from the last three elections. In a special programme, NDTV Editor-in-Chief and CEO Rahul Kanwal listed the possibilities that may play out on the counting day in terms of numbers.
Bengal has 294 assembly seats, and the majority mark stands at 148. In 2021, the Trinamool had won 215 seats to the BJP’s 77. The Left and “Others” had won one each.
Of the 142 seats going to polls in the second phase, the Trinamool won 123 and the BJP 18 in the 2021 assembly polls.
For the Lok Sabha polls of 2019, if the results for parliamentary seats are broken down in terms of assembly seats, the Trinamool could be said to have won 105 seats and the BJP 37.
Five years later, for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the corresponding numbers are 115 and 27.
A strike rate analysis shows the numbers:
Looking at the seats the parties have won in the three elections, the BJP seems to have the potential to win 142 seats — having won 54 in all three times, 38 twice and 50 just once.
But the chunk of the “never won” seats is higher in Phase 2 — the number of such seats is 102. For Phase 1, this figure was 50. The number of seats won at seats once was 102 in Phase 1 compared to 40 in the coming phase.
The SIR deletions are also expected to have a big effect — the numbers in areas going to polls in the second phase are also double compared to the phase 1 figures.
The deletions in some areas are more than the victory margin of the Trinamool Congress — a point that has been weighing on the ruling party. sparking allegations of deliberate tinkering.
“Elections are numbers plus emotion and it is that emotional chemistry that comes into play in an election we are witnessing in Bengal – quite different from the ones in other states like Assam or Kerala,” pointed out Kanchan Gupta, senior journalist and advisor to I&B ministry.
Asked if the Trinamool is feeling the pressure, NDTV’s Jayanta Ghosal said the Trinamool leaders have pointed out that the “Anti-SIR emotion is very strong in south Bengal”. Besides, the deleted people and their families are also very frustrated and that also has to be considered. Their vote will definitely go against the BJP, they have pointed out, he added.
What reduces the BJP’s chances in this phase are 53 seats in minority-dominated areas, pointed out psephologist Amitabh Tiwari. “But big swings happen and on the ground, ‘minority appeasement’ seems to the buzzword of this election,” he added, citing that even a six per cent anti-incumbency can drastically change the outcome.
The second and last phase of the Bengal elections will be held on April 29 and the votes will be counted on May 4.