Yet over the details hangs an even more fundamental question: who, exactly, is running Iran?
After all, American and Israeli strikes have killed not just the former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but also Ali Larijani, the chief of Iran’s highest national security body, as well as many senior commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and the Iranian army. The result, according to U.S. President Donald Trump, is that the Iranians are “all messed up.” “They have no idea who their leader is,” he remarked during a recent call with MS NOW.
For some, this state of affairs means driving home the U.S. advantage by continuing to target leaders opposed to a negotiated settlement, the apparent assumption being that sustained economic and military pressure will ultimately deepen divisions in Tehran and force a more favorable outcome in bilateral talks.
It is a seductive view, but one that overlooks another fact, clear to me from years of research into the Iranian establishment: the war may have removed multiple Iranian leaders from the stage, but it has not paralysed the Iranian state. Despite the conflict, Iranian command structures have been reconstituted, decisions continue to be made, and Iran has adapted to sustained pressure.